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Propositions Getting Mixed Recommendations, With Low Voter Turnout Likely on May 19 Multiple groups are making recommendations to California voters regarding the six budget-related ballot propositions (1A through 1F) that will go before voters in California's special election next month. And the recommendations are going both for and against the measures, at a time when many elections officials are predicting a low voter turnout – "dismal" was the term used by Yolo County Clerk Freddie Oakley, who is not one to mince words. Voters who look to education groups for guidance may not find much unanimity. The California Teachers Association is endorsing all six propositions, but the smaller California Federation of Teachers is opposing all but Prop. 1B. The Association of California School Administrators is supporting five of the propositions (1A through 1E), but the California School Boards Association is opposing 1A, 1C, 1D, and 1E, while supporting 1B and 1F. Meanwhile the Service Employees International Union, the California Federation of Teachers and California Faculty Association have raised $1 million to oppose Prop. 1A. This pales beside the larger sum ($6 million or more raised to support the ballot propositions by the California Teachers Association. And we realize that in today's world, $1 million only goes so far in terms of convincing voters in a state as big as this one. But our experience is that when voters feel confused – or even indifferent – about ballot propositions, they have a tendency to vote "no." During a low-turnout special election, it's also difficult to muster a majority for passage of a package of ballot proposition that includes a tax increase – which is what is being attempted on May 19. The anti-tax activists almost always make an appearance at the polls – a tendency that's defeated more than a few school facilities bonds in this state through the years. And thus far, we don’t sense much of a counterbalancing groundswell of support for these propositions. The fact that Governor Schwarzenegger and legislative Democrats are sponsoring the six ballot propositions may not be a plus, either, since all political figures associated with the recent state budget compromise currently have a low standing in all the polls we’ve seen. Then there's voter fatigue. Californians were asked to go to the polls three or four times in 2008, depending on where they live. You can sense a bit of battle weary sentiment in the CTA’s mail-out brochure that was distributed last week, with the words "Another Election Is Around the Corner . . . Schools and Students Hang In The Balance" on the cover. Voters may also be swayed by the stance taken by some studiously nonpartisan groups. The California League of Women Voters is opposing several of the May 19 propositions, and not endorsing any of them. The California Council of Churches (which represents several mainstream Protestant denominations) is opposing all six. We have no particular appetite for the can of worms that will be opened if the six ballot propositions fail, and the state budget has to be redone, most likely while some stakeholder groups take their case to court. But our political intuition suggests that the six ballot propositions face an uphill battle, and election day is less than a month away. |
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