|
|
Declining Enrollment – The End is Coming! In recent years, many California public school districts have experienced enrollment declines, resulting in the need to make budget, staffing and facilities adjustments. The statewide decline began in grades K-5 after enrollments peaked in the year 2000, extended to grades 6-8 after a 2003 peak, and then into grades 9-12 after a 2007 peak. Evidence now suggests that the California public school enrollment decline will end in the year 2010, when K-12 enrollment will reach a low of 6.2 million – only 100,000 students below its peak of 6.3 million in the year 2004. The evidence examined includes public, private, charter and home-schooled students, attrition factors, birth trends and migration patterns. (The evidence will be presented in a series of papers following this paper, which presents the overall trends at work.) In the past, California public school enrollment grew significantly, as seen in the K-12 enrollment trends graph. From 1994 to 2004, total K-12 enrollment increased one million students. After a decline of only 100,000 students from 2004 to 2010, enrollment is projected to once again increase. By the year 2015, K-12 enrollment should exceed the previous 2004 peak and continue its growth trend thereafter. CALIFORNIA ENROLLMENT TRENDS – K-12
California has about 1,000 public school districts, consisting of elementary, high school and unified districts. The impact of enrollment decline and growth is not uniform for different grades served. There are also regional differences at work that impact enrollments, such as migration, residential construction, and socio-economic factors. But the statewide trends paint a picture that school administrators and school board members should consider when making decisions that impact their local communities. While the K-12 enrollment trend graph presents the overall picture, the graphs for grades K-5, 6-8 and 9-12 enable a more complete understanding of the factors at work. CALIFORNIA ENROLLMENT TRENDS – K-5
CALIFORNIA ENROLLMENT TRENDS – 6-8
Elementary school districts were most heavily impacted after K-5 enrollment began to decline – a decline which occurred from 2000 to 2007. When declines also began in grades 6-8 after the 2003 peak, adjustments were necessary in all K-8 grades. Unified school districts also experienced the impact of K-8 enrollment declines, but because enrollment in grades 9-12 were increasing, the revenue limit impact was not as severe. CALIFORNIA ENROLLMENT TRENDS – 9-12
High school districts, until recently, were mostly spared from the impact of declining enrollments. But with 9-12 enrollments projected to decline from 2007 to 2015, the decline “wave” will be felt. While unified school districts will also experience a grade 9-12 decline, that will be offset by projected enrollment growth in the lower grades. Enrollment trends that impact different grade groups over different time periods present a challenge to be addressed locally. But the State of California will also have to address the revenue limit impact of future enrollment growth. Editor's Note: Vern Weber is a Senior Consultant for Planning and Management with the educational consulting firm Total School Solutions. |
|
