California Enrollment Trends II:

Charter Schools Pull From Both Public and Private Schools

By Vern Weber - January 30, 2009

Most of California’s school-age children are “officially” counted in public, charter and private schools.  But what about those children who slip through the cracks — the home-schoolers and dropouts? And what are the trends?

Based on California Department of Education records and outside estimates, in 2006-07, the State of California had K-12 students in the following categories:

Accurate enrollment counts are available for public, private and charter schools, but estimates must be made for other categories.  The estimates for home-schooled students range from 150,000 to 200,000; a figure of 166,000 taken from court records was considered to be reasonable.  The dropout estimate of 100,000 students is based upon a dropout rate of 23 percent.  Special schools include those for the blind, deaf, and other special needs, for which composite records are not available.

Since the introduction of charter schools in the early 1990s, the number of charter schools and their total enrollment has steadily increased, as seen below:

Based on past trends, it is reasonable to assume that charter school enrollments will continue to increase by about 25,000 students annually.  When the charter school enrollment trend is compared to public and private school enrollments, an interesting pattern emerges:

The data suggest that, to date, charter school enrollment has drawn students from both traditional public schools and private schools.  Whether this trend will continue in the future is unclear.  But it is most likely that the charter school movement will continue, presenting challenges to California’s public school districts as they struggle to provide facilities for new charter schools, and to make budget and staffing adjustments due to the transfer of students to the charters.

The future of home-schooled students is also unclear, but given recent court actions, it appears that home-schooling will continue unabated. The question arises, however, that given an apparent court go-ahead, whether the home-school movement will grow.

Also presenting a challenge is the focus on reducing high school dropouts, given the recent estimate by the California Department of Education that the dropout rate is 23 percent.  This issue will be further addressed in a future paper.

Editor's Note: Vern Weber is a Senior Consultant for Planning and Management with the educational consulting firm Total School Solutions.